On October 22 and 23, the 73rd International Softwood Conference brought together more than 260 participants in the Norwegian capital. Coordinated by Treindustrien, in collaboration with the European Sawmill Industry Organisation (EOS) and the European Timber Trade Federation (ETTF), it provided an opportunity to review the various markets and outline the future of the sector.

As every year, European timber professionals turned out in large numbers for the traditional International Softwood Timber Conference. After a day of site visits on Wednesday, they met in Oslo the following day for a conference session on the main market developments. The event opened with a financial overview of the sector, presented by economist and forestry specialist Johan Freij, who emphasized "the exceptional uncertainty the world is facing today." While there are numerous trends indicating "structural inflation" that will affect economies in the coming years, the injections of liquidity could nevertheless revive the European outlook. Regarding supplies, Johan Freij painted a nuanced picture, highlighting both the future challenges to be met in terms of log supply and the emergence of "promising signs" regarding the possibility of improving yields.

Whatever the future holds, the economist stressed the absolute necessity of strengthening communication: “The sector should communicate more boldly about the benefits of using wood to combat climate change, not only in terms of carbon storage, but also as a substitute for more carbon-intensive materials.” Alongside him, many speakers argued that, given the likely long-term decline in spruce availability, the entire sector should promote the use of pine for a wider range of applications.

Stabilization

Following this presentation, Tommi Sneck, President of the EOS, and Morten Bergsten, Vice-President of the ETTF and Chairman of the Softwood Committee, provided an overview of the evolution of softwood production. After peaking in 2021, production in EOS member countries has declined by approximately 10% in recent years to adapt to the overall decrease in demand, but has been trending towards stabilization since 2024. This trend is expected to continue in 2026, according to forecasts.

Regarding raw material prices, the widespread increase across Europe "has hampered the industry's profitability," Tommi Sneck emphasized. The EOS president also noted that "significant differences in profitability" persist throughout Europe. Finally, high roundwood prices risk "posing a problem for the industry" when demand picks up. On the positive side, Tommi Sneck and Morten Bergsten observed "tentative signs of recovery" in the construction sector. Given that Europe—along with the United States and China—has "underbuilt" for approximately twenty years, and that inflation is trending downward, "2026 could be the year of recovery in the construction markets," according to the two presidents, provided that the "regulations and bureaucratic burdens" weighing on industry professionals are eased, Mr. Bergsten concluded.

Retreat

As every year, the conference also included a focus on key foreign markets related to the European softwood sector. For Great Britain, Stephen Sabine of JAM Timber Consulting observed that the market should remain stable, with imports slightly lower in 2025 compared to 2024, and a recovery anticipated for 2026. For North America, Paul Jannke, director of Forest Economic Advisors, reported pent-up demand in the US housing market due to a low construction rate for over a decade. Coupled with uncertain economic prospects and high mortgage rates, these factors are helping to keep housing starts at relatively moderate levels.

Still on the international front, Paul Jannke highlighted "the impact of U.S. tariffs and general geopolitical instability" on global softwood lumber trade. While European producers are subject to a 10% tariff, overall rates on Canadian sawn softwood lumber are much higher, putting European exporters in a more advantageous position. Canadians are therefore considering diversifying their export markets…

Contrasts

Regarding China, Olle Berg of the Setra Group noted Russia’s growing presence, which is increasingly dictating market prices. He also reported that softwood lumber consumption in China has contracted sharply due to the current construction crisis. The outlook for the Chinese market remains fragile, with cautious optimism beyond 2026. A similar delicate situation exists in Japan, due to the weak yen and declining housing starts, observed Fredrik Westling of Forssell Timber. At the same time, “policymakers want to increase the use of wood in non-residential buildings, which could offset the negative factors hindering the use of sawn timber.”

Regarding the MENA region (North Africa and the Middle East), the market "remains an important outlet for many Nordic sawmills," noted Erik Eliasson of Norra Timber, "particularly for lower-grade pine." The outlook for softwood lumber consumption in this region is relatively positive for the next two years.

Clarification

Another key topic, the supply of logs, was the subject of several presentations, with a unanimous conclusion: we are heading towards a long-term market stabilization across Europe and worldwide, “or even a decrease in some regions,” according to Sami Pastila of Afry Management. For Christian Nielsen of Swedish Food and Forest Industries, a specialist in Nordic markets, “the [Scandinavian] industry will have to process smaller diameter roundwood, turn more towards pine for construction, and strive to establish a complete value chain to ensure more efficient construction.”Before concluding this day rich in discussions, the final session focused on the future, providing insights into market opportunities. Paul Brannen, from EOS and CEI Bois, emphasized housing policy in the UK and the EU, while Mona Ørbekk, from RVT, highlighted the potential of renovation and roofing as promising outlets for sawn softwood. Finally, Frode Henning Killi, from Moelven, presented his company's commitment to the reconstruction of Ukraine.

The conference concluded with a joint statement from industry representatives regarding the EU Regulation. They reaffirmed that they continue to face "a serious lack of clarity and legal certainty concerning the European regulation" and once again stressed the need for "genuine simplification" measures to ensure that the EU Regulation becomes "applicable and proportionate" for all operators in the value chain! Let's hope that a sensible and definitive European arbitration will take place before the next edition of the Conference, which will be held in Dublin on October 28 and 29, 2026…

Photo credits: ©Iakov Kalinin and ©Weston Stig

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